有關對上沙烏地阿拉伯的比賽分析
我很驚訝我們的 U20 教練會認為對手的戰術值得拿到 3 分，因此我把
[post=16521036.45] 翻譯成中文。
[hr]
If I checked correctly, you had 4 headers (after min. 60 only 3), no
unpredictable, no technical, no quick (on SE relevant positions). So you
could only get the corner-head-SE, the wing-head-SE and the wing-scoring-SE.
如果我的確認是對的，你們有 4 位頭球球員 (在 60 分鐘之後只剩下 3 位), 沒有不可
預測, 技術, 以及 (與 SE 相關位置) 的速度球員。所以你們可能只能夠獲得角球的頭球
SE, 邊路頭球 SE 和邊路得分 SE。
Taiwan had 4 headers, too, plus one technical forward and one quick forward,
giving Taiwan the edge on SE, especially since SE depend on possession.
台灣也有 4 位頭球球員，並且加上一位技術型前鋒與一位速度前鋒，這些給了台灣 SE
的機會，尤其在 SE 依賴持球率的情況下。
OK, we can agree to disagree. In general, for an extreme CA with possession
as low as yours, you should have at least 60% defense on all sides. Since you
only got more than 60% on one of those three sides, scoring a regular goal
wasn't unlikely.
OK, 我們可以同意你的不同意。一般來說，一個低持球率的極端 CA，在每個防守點上必
需至少擁有 60%以上的防守率。因為你們只有一邊遠高於 60% 以及一個接近，普通的進
球得分並非不可能。
With 27% possession, you had to expect us to get all 5 exclusive and 5
regular chances (according to the koenigsblau calculator), while you only got
CA chances, no regular chances.
在只有 27% 的持球率的情況之下，你們應該期待我們得到所有 10 次的普通進攻機會 (
根據 koenigsblau calculator)，而你們只能獲得 CA 的機率而沒有任何普通機會。
Out of those 10 chances, 35% go through the center, which had a chance of
scoring of 24% on average, meaning an expected 0.84 goals through the middle.
在 10 次的機會當中，35%是由中路進攻並且擁有 24% 的得分機會，平均來講，在中路進
攻的部分會得 0.84 分。
25% go through the right wing, which had a chance of scoring of 32%, meaning
an average 0.8 goals through the right wing.
25% 的機會是由右路進攻，並且擁有 32% 的得分機率，這個意思是在右路上會有 0.8 個
得分機會。
25% go through the weaker left wing, which only had a chance of 5%, meaning
an average of 0.13 goals on the weak wing.
還有 25% 是來自比較弱且只有 5%得分機會的左路進攻，這意思是平均只有 0.13 個得分
。
Summed together, the mathematical expectation was 2 regular goals going
through your defenses.
把這些數字加總起來，台灣約有 2 (1.77) 分的普通機會突破你們的防守。
Plus, in this match, Taiwan had better specs and 73% possession, so the
chance of Taiwan scoring an SE goal (quick, head or even tech-vs-head), which
your defense can't protect against, was also likely.
另外，台灣在這場比賽中擁有較優勢的特技與 73% 的持球率，所以台灣有機會發動你們
的防守無法阻止的 SE 得分事件 (速度, 頭球, 甚至技術對頭球)。
You on the other hand had to count on your CA chances.
接下來必需計算你們 CA 的得分機會。
If statistical probability tells us that Taiwan gets 10 chances, makes 2
goals, that means 8 chances were blocked and could become CAs. Let's say, you
converted 3 out of those 8 chances into CAs (guessing, too lazy to check the
exact formula^^).
如果在統計上告訴我們台灣的10次進攻機會中會得2分，這代表有8球會被擋住並發動 CA
。我們以 3/8 的防守反擊機會來計算好了(這只是猜測，太懶而不能確認正確的公式)。
Out of those 3 chances, 35% go through the center, which had a chance of
scoring of 35% on average, meaning an expected 0.37 goals through the middle.
在3次的防守反擊機會中，有 35 % 發生在中路進攻，並且獲得 0.37 的得分機會。
25% go through the right wing, which had a chance of scoring of 78%, meaning
an average 0.59 goals through the right wing.
有 25% 的右路進攻，並且有 78% 的得分機會，這表示平均有 0.59 球能從右路攻陷。
25% go through the weaker left wing, which only had a chance of 11%, meaning
an average of 0.08 goals on the weak wing.
會有 25% 是比較弱的左路進攻，只有11%的得分機會，也就是說平均只能獲得 0.08 分。
Summed up, a total of 1.04 regular goals for your team to be expected.
把他加總起來，你們的球隊將預期有 1.04 的普通得分機會。
So, mathematically speaking and not considering SE and SP, a Taiwan win with
a margin of 1 was the most likely result.
所以數學上來看，不包含 SE 和 SP 的影響，台灣領先一分是合理的結果。
Of course our lineup could have been better (after the game it's always easy
to say^^), but I don't think the win was lucky.
當然，我們的先發排安應該要更好 (在比賽之後總是比較容易這樣說)，但我不認為這場
比賽是因為運氣才贏球。
[hr]
註：最後一段和比賽分析無關就沒翻譯了。
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